As 2025 reaches its final quarter, Peter Draper looks at pricing and key trends in the Lloyd’s insurance markets
Summer 2025 gave us the Lionesses winning the Euros, the Oasis reunion tour, and in a personal milestone – my son sitting his GCSEs. It also gave me a chance to reflect on how market rates, terms and capacity have shifted this year. As autumn approaches, it seems a good moment to look at where renewables broking and underwriting may be heading over the next 12 months. This article may lean a little on the Oasis back catalogue.
Thank You for the Good Times
Like any major comeback tour, the question is whether the key players can stay the course. It will not surprise anyone that NARDAC has seen the same softening in rates reported across the market, but the pace of change has caught some off guard. Underwriting capital is now largely a price taker, with clients holding much more control across renewables asset classes.
This reflects well-capitalised Lloyd’s markets, which remain attractive to investors despite heavy U.S. catastrophe losses. Globally, claims have not exhausted premiums, so capital continues to flow into London, cheapening the rate of insurance capacity. You can see this in London D&F markets, which although saw losses from U.S. wildfires, still remain willing to support that peril.
This year, softening is extending beyond rates into terms. Yet in renewables, I would argue, we’re rarely in a truly hard market – what we’ve mostly experienced is a period of NatCat-driven pricing. Now, while rates for NatCat, offshore, wind, solar and BESS have all fallen, each asset class is facing its own specific pressures, and there is nuance in what’s driving the downward movement in premiums.
2025 is really the year of the battery and so demand for insurance services is high. But, we’ve also seen the biggest falls in rates over the last 3-4 years – and while there’s an influx of capital wanting to support the market, a large proportion of the fall in rates is down to a pricing correction based on claims performance. Compared to solar, where the view of the underlying technology hasn’t changed but rates are coming down in line with the broader market trend, batteries are seeing rates fall because of more confidence in battery systems. Underwriters are comfortable the technology will perform, and the claims record underpins that.
Offshore is a bit more complex. The market is softening, but loss ratios are worsening for subsea infrastructure and cabling. For new developments, offshore wind has obviously slowed owing to policy headwinds in the U.S., sticky inflation that’s hurt the balance sheets of the big developers, and a wider market pull back. This has meant the underwriters with offshore wind books have headed to onshore assets to find income – helping drive onshore rates lower still.
Outside the specifics of technologies that have driven price, what’s happening in London reflects what’s been happening in the U.S. market. U.S. domestic insurers have become much more competitive in pricing. Two years ago, London insurance markets might have secured the whole order for an insured, but with a slight softening in domestic markets, London has had to become much more competitive to remain relevant to the U.S. In some cases, London is now cheaper than domestic markets for the first time in four years. Off the back of this, we’ve observed that the script has flipped on lead placements. Historically, U.S. orders would be led domestically, with London following where other domestic markets couldn’t meet lead terms. Now, we can lead much more from London, and domestic markets might not be able to follow. I think it’s the first time in NARDAC’s history I can genuinely say that we’re doing deals more cheaply in London than the U.S.
Lastly, there’s a people factor in play. We’ve seen people in the market moving across to competitor businesses. As they look to retain and bring across client relationships, they’re also contributing to a softening in pricing to be more competitive in their new roles. We often see this in underwriting, but this year the broker and retail markets are seeing a lot more movement – the latter particularly in the U.S.
What’s the Story?
Like the difficult second album, a soft market resets expectations. At the outset of a placement, we sketch-out the likely panel, secure lead quotes and strive to avoid overmarketing an account. But there are instances where underwriters are signed down – going in for 10 per cent of a risk and ending up seven, six or five. It means there are going to be difficult conversations with management, where underwriters may have to admit that they can only secure 80% of what they were looking to bind and at lower pricing than the expiring policy.
As a result, we’re seeing people chasing the accounts that have pipeline, being happy to commit to cheaper terms on the first deal, in the hope they are retained for the second and third deals in due course. Right now, if you’re a broker on an account with pipeline, I think you’re going to secure better terms than on a standalone project
Some brokers are also working on a first come first served basis, distributing deals en masse with underwriters in bcc. First to respond gets the lines!
Don’t Look Back in Anger
The above is a frustrating dynamic for insurers who have been used to trading under harder market conditions. Underwriters are having to do business development for the first time in a long time as the premium pot falls for existing clients and annual financial targets require a keen focus on new revenues.
We’ve therefore seen some insurers head back to conventional power, shifting away from renewables, as well as trying their luck in already saturated or harder markets – such as Spain (saturated) or South Africa and Australia (harder markets).
While some insurers will retreat to known products and assets where they’ve previously made money – and, in the case of conventional power in the U.S. those sectors that are coming back into political favour – others are looking to new assets and policies and, in some cases, looking to support early-stage technologies they might not have looked at previously.
Be Here Now
So what next? We expect soft terms to continue for at least the next 3–5 years, absent major cat events. For retailers and insureds, several trends stand out:
1. Rise of multicover markets
The multicover trend is gaining traction because underwriters are under pressure to grow revenues in a contracting premium pool. By offering property, liability, cargo and even construction cover within a single placement, they capture more lines of premium while simplifying buying for the client. For developers and asset managers, this offers efficiency — one negotiation, one claims process, and often lower aggregate cost. For brokers, it means more careful diligence is needed to ensure clients are not over-exposed to a single counterparty’s credit or claims performance.
2. A shift in competition
In softer markets, the competition moves from pricing to breadth of solution. Underwriters will increasingly differentiate themselves by adding peripheral covers or offering more bespoke endorsements that address client concerns – whether that’s cyber protection for SCADA systems, delay-in-start-up extensions, or coverage for new technologies. We are already seeing examples in the U.S. where insurers are bundling cyber and property into the same renewable package.
3. Long-term relationships under pressure
Turnover in underwriting teams makes consistency harder. Clients who once valued long-term relationships with specific individuals may now find their account handled by three different teams in as many years. This volatility can undermine trust and destabilise pricing, as rates and terms peak and fall as people move around. Right now, clients need underwriters who are not only technically competent but organisationally stable, able to carry knowledge and claims history across market cycles.
4. Service becomes paramount
When pricing converges, service is the battleground. Turnaround time for quotes, willingness to workshop risks, and proactivity during claims will matter more than ever. We have already seen examples this year where underwriters who consistently reply first to submissions are writing outsized shares of programmes. Equally, those slow to respond are being signed down or left out entirely.
5. Risk appetite innovation
Some underwriters are showing willingness to explore new risks – EV charging networks, floating solar, or grid-enhancing technologies. In a harder market, these would have struggled to find capacity. In today’s climate, with revenue targets pressing, underwriters are willing to test the water. This offers opportunity for clients, but also carries risk if capacity proves flighty once claims emerge.
The Nature of Reality
For the market to adapt successfully, both brokers and underwriters need to evolve. At NARDAC, we believe this requires both technical change and cultural change.
Streamlined terms and conditions
In hard markets, underwriters might insist on 10–15 underwriting questions before offering terms. In the current environment, speed matters more. We advocate a leaner approach – five key questions focused on what truly dictates risk. This not only improves client experience but also ensures underwriters remain competitive in signed-down scenarios.
Clearer risk pricing
Insureds are increasingly sophisticated in their risk management. Solar developers want to know whether investing in stowage or hail nets will tangibly lower their premiums. BESS operators want clarity on whether spacing containers at eight metres instead of three metres materially reduces risk cost. Too often, underwriters highlight risks but fail to quantify the premium benefit of mitigation. Forward-looking underwriters who can articulate this value proposition will win trust and business.
New market solutions
Innovation is overdue. If insureds spend millions on resilience — flood barriers, fire suppression, or reinforced cabling — the insurance product should recognise it. We see room for policies that explicitly link premium reduction to proven investment in mitigation, with measurable benchmarks. This is common in other lines (e.g. motor telematics rewarding safe drivers) but underdeveloped in renewables.
Regulatory foresight as a service
Insureds regularly ask how changing rules – such as U.S. Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions, safe harbour thresholds, or new tariff regimes – may alter their exposures. Underwriters could play a stronger role by providing structured commentary on regulatory risks, helping brokers advise clients proactively. This would elevate underwriters from risk acceptors to risk partners.
Respecting broker expertise
The temptation in a soft market is for underwriters to over-explain risks directly to clients, positioning themselves as market educators. While well-intentioned, this can bypass brokers and confuse messaging. Specialist brokers already understand the nuances of technology and policy risk; the most effective underwriters respect this expertise and collaborate rather than duplicate.
Faster response times
One of the most repeated frustrations is slow market response. In a soft market where placements are easily oversubscribed, speed equals opportunity. Underwriters who delay may find their intended 10 per cent cut to five, or even zero. Those who reply swiftly and decisively are consistently rewarded.
You Gotta Roll With It
If underwriters must adapt to a softer trading environment, so too must brokers. In fact, the role of the broker becomes even more critical as pricing converges and clients face more choice but less clarity. At NARDAC, we are taking deliberate steps to ensure our clients and retail partners continue to get the best possible outcomes.
1. Rethinking renewals
In harder markets, the conventional wisdom was to start renewal discussions three months ahead of expiry, locking in capacity before terms deteriorated further. Today, the logic has flipped. By waiting until closer to deadlines, we allow more time for competitive pressure to exert itself, capturing sharper pricing and broader terms. This does not mean leaving clients exposed; it means managing the calendar intelligently, ensuring submissions are ready, and knowing when to press go. The skill lies in reading the market mood and timing the approach.
2. Broadening into new asset classes
Soft markets often encourage innovation, and we are actively helping clients explore emerging risks. EV charging infrastructure, for example, presents new liability exposures at the interface of mobility and energy. Floating solar, which has taken off in Southeast Asia, is now appearing in Europe and the U.S., with questions around anchoring, corrosion and storm resilience. By moving early in these classes, we help clients secure cover while capacity is available and underwriters are keen to diversify.
3. Developing new solutions
We are also broadening our scope upstream, supporting equipment manufacturers as they seek liability, stock and storage cover. For BESS in particular, confidence in technology has allowed us to structure coverage not just for project owners but for manufacturers themselves. This creates new programmes for underwriters and provides a more complete risk-transfer solution for the sector.
4. Supporting supply chain resilience
The U.S. political climate has added new layers of complexity, with developers pre-ordering equipment to beat tariffs or to secure safe harbour compliance. Stock coverage is proving invaluable here, giving financial insulation against policy volatility. This is a good example of how brokers can sit at the intersection of policy, finance and technology, creating solutions that respond to forces outside pure insurance.
5. Guiding client behaviour
Finally, in a soft market it is tempting for insureds to chase the cheapest option. Our role is to remind clients that relationships and service have value beyond rate. Securing capacity with carriers who will still be standing in the next hard market is often worth more than shaving another half-point off premium today.
Stand By Me
The irony of a soft market is that the “soft factors” matter most. Relationships, service and loyalty sustain through cycles. NARDAC has been here for five years and will remain for many more. We’re a relationship business, and we encourage our clients to always choose an insurer that’s right for them as a company. Soft markets are followed by hard markets, and carriers that have paid meaningful claims will remember those who stood by them. Securing the cheapest deal is one thing — securing the right deal is another.